Given below is an economic report published by the Emerging Markets Forum.
This report was released sometime in early August 2009
India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation
The report is not a prediction of what is likely to unravel—few would hazard a guess at that distance—but rather a statement of what is possible if things are done right. The ‘possibility frontier’—and hence a benchmark of sorts for the reality that comes forth—is audacious by any standards. The report believes India can reach the ‘affluent’ status in a single generation, i.e. by 2039, from having graduated just last year to the ranks of IMF’s lower middle income nations.
- Under our scenario, 2039 would have a world very different from the one we see today. It would be significantly wealthier, with per capita incomes averaging $23,400 in 2007 dollars, nearly three times the $8,500 today. The economic centre of gravity would shift to Asia, which today accounts for 21 percent of global activity, but by 2039 could account for more than half. Three giant economies, China, India and Japan, would lead Asia’s resurgence.
- India is following in China’s footsteps, 10 years later
- The Indian model of service-led growth is giving way to a more traditional development model where industry and manufacturing drive growth and job creation
- The immediate priority needs to be to protect India from the global recession, and that requires an aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing.
- For India’s long-term growth it is in its self-interest to maintain three global public goods: market confidence and economic stability, a well functioning financial system, and an open trading regime.
- If India is to be a growth marathoner, it must manage three simultaneous transformations: becoming a more cohesive society, becoming a globally competitive economy, and becoming a responsible global citizen.
- India’s long-term prospects and growth will depend on its ability to balance all three dimensions—society, economy and global citizenship—as it makes policy decisions
- “A refocused government is essential to facilitating dramatic transformations in the Indian economy and society. There is a need to rethink not only what the government does but also how it does it.
- Periodic functional reviews should identify areas for the government to withdraw from through downward decentralization, privatization, outsourcing or simple elimination.
- India needs to learn from East Asia, recognizing the mistakes in earlier years and not allowing powerful business interests to capture the state.
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