Business and Development Sector Reports

Preparing for the coming Global Economic Collapse – Worst case scenario forecasting by Societe Generale

societe-generaleSociete Generale is one of the main European financial services companies.It is also one of the oldest banks in France.

In a report released last month Societe Generale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

Download the Complete Report at the Link below

Societe-Generale-Worst-Case-Debt-Scenario-Fourth-Quarter-Nov-2009- PDF – 68 Pages – 3.1 MB

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Contents
The worst case debt scenario
Hope for the best, be prepared for the worst
How to position for our bear scenario
Analogies with Japan’s lost decade & investment ideas
Debt explosion in 2009
The current economic crisis displays compelling similarities with Japan in the 1990s
End of market rally for equities? Look at Japan!
Worried about inflation? Japan suggests deflation more of a risk
Stress-testing performance by asset class under a bear scenario
How to invest under a bear scenario
Focusing on roots to forecast consequences
Flashback to the origins of the economic crisis
Governments bailing out the financial system, but at what price
Counting on a comeback for the US consumer
Counting on governments to survive debt mountains!
The painful task of removing the excess debt
Governments: choose the route to debt reduction
Indebted developed economies can’t compete with debt ‘free’ emerging markets
Three economic scenarios, one constraint: debt!
Bear scenario Lengthy deleveraging, and slow recovery over five years
Fixed Income & Credit under a Bear scenario
Investment Grade Credit under a Bear scenario
High Yield Credit under a Bear scenario
Equity Strategy under a Bear scenario
Oil & Gas under a Bear scenario
Metals & Mining under a Bear scenario
Agricultural commodities under a Bear scenario
Appendix: Bottom-up approach: central and bull scenarios
Central scenario Back to potential economic growth in three years
Currencies – Protracted dollar weakness
Fixed Income & Credit under a Central scenario
Investment Grade Credit under a Central scenario
High Yield Credit under a Central scenario
Equity Strategy under a Central scenario
Equity volatility under a Central scenario
Oil & Gas under a Central scenario
Metals & Mining under a Central scenario
Agricultural commodities under a Central scenario
Bull scenario Strong boom one year out
Fixed Income & Credit under a Bull Scenario
Investment Grade Credit under a Bull scenario
High Yield Credit under a Bull scenario
Equity Strategy under a Bull scenario
Oil & Gas under a Bull scenario
Metals & Mining under a Bull scenario
Agricultural commodities under a Bull scenario

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